Written By Lexx Thornton President Trump has many times suggested that tariff revenue could replace the federal income tax. This claim is absurdly off-base, since it is mathematically impossible for tariffs, even at current levels of imports, to generate the $2.4 trillion in revenue that would be necessary. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, has said that the president only aspires to eliminate income tax for Americans earning less than $150k. Could tariffs cover that? As shown in the figure above, annual tariff revenue from the current effective Trump tariff rate of 28% would—assuming that imports stayed constant— amount to $838bn
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